The United States is expected to record more than 3 million deaths last year when the final data is in. That would make it a record year for deaths—and the COVID-19 pandemic is a significant factor for how so many Americans died in 2020.
The Associated Press noted in late December that “preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019.” This would represent a rise of about 15% from 2019’s numbers, and, depending on finalized December numbers, could be even greater.
That is the highest single-year percentage leap since 1918, when a flu pandemic and World War I contributed significantly to American death totals. In 1918, death totals rose an alarming 47% from the previous year.
According to the AP, there was reason to be hopeful for overall death numbers to come down in 2020 before the pandemic emerged. The article notes that the overall mortality rate fell a bit throughout the U.S. in 2019, attributable to reductions in heart disease and cancer deaths.
Fortune, in its coverage of the news, added that the number of American deaths “typically rises by a few tens of thousands every year” due to the aging of the population. It also noted that the age-adjusted death rate dropped about 1% in 2019, and according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, life expectancy rose by about six weeks to 78.8 years.
The AP article quoted the CDC’s Robert Anderson, who said life expectancy for 2020 could end up dropping as much as three full years due to coronavirus-driven trends.
“It was actually a pretty good year for mortality, as things go,” said Anderson, who oversees CDC death statistics.
However, coronavirus impacted the numbers in direct and indirect ways, and some additional expected effects of the pandemic didn’t quite manifest as expected.
For instance, according to the AP, “a burst of pneumonia cases early this year may have been COVID-19 deaths that simply weren’t recognized as such early in the epidemic.” There’s also data and anecdotal evidence pointing to drug overdose deaths being on the rise, with the pandemic playing a role.
Despite the expectation that automobile accident-related deaths would decline as commuting and other types of driving declined in 2020, the AP reported that “data on that is not yet in, but anecdotal reports suggest there was no such decline.”
When focused on how many Americans died in 2020, the U.S. death totals, according to the CDC, also included “an unexpected number of deaths from certain types of heart and circulatory diseases, diabetes, and dementia.”